QUARTER 3 MARKET UPDATE


While sales across South County rose 11% year over year, the median price held steady at $1.9M, nearly unchanged from Q3 2024. Modest mix shifts across submarkets contributed to this stability. Compared to Q2 2025, the median price increased slightly, up 4% from $1.83M. Since Q2 2024, median pricing has hovered between $1.8M and $2M, a narrow range compared to the more dramatic growth seen earlier in the decade — up 46% since Q4 2020, equating to roughly 9% annual appreciation. Of course, performance continues to vary meaningfully by submarket.

Quarter 3 was an exceptional quarter for Riskin Partners Estate Group, marked by impressive sales volume and activity across Santa Barbara County. Our team closed properties ranging from $3 million to $55 million, achieving more than $150 million in total closed volume this quarter. We’re deeply grateful to our clients and community for their continued trust and partnership.

 
 
 
 
 

Montecito

Montecito remains one of the region’s most resilient markets, with 49 sales in Q3, a 23% increase from last year. The median price declined 9%, from $5.6M to $5.1M, though this shift appears largely due to a higher proportion of lower-priced sales, particularly condominiums, rather than a softening in luxury demand.

This quarter saw eight sales over $10M and one over $50M (versus six over $10M and two over $15M in Q3 2024). Year-to-date, condos represent 20% of Montecito sales, up from 12% in 2024, helping explain the statistical dip in median pricing. Over the past five years, Montecito’s pricing has appreciated 13% annually on average, outpacing the broader market’s 9%.

The standout transaction this quarter was a two-parcel sale on San Ysidro Road for $55M, represented by our team.

 

 

Santa Barbara

Santa Barbara recorded 160 closed sales, up 19% year over year. The median price of $1.84M was 11% lower than Q3 2024, though that comparison follows a record-setting stretch in which Q3 2024 and Q1 2025 reached historic highs ($2.1M and $2.15M, respectively).

Santa Barbara accounts for roughly 45% of South County sales, and therefore, its pricing trends tend to mirror the overall market. Over the past five years, the city’s median price has increased 9% annually.

 
 

Hope Ranch

After a strong Q2, Hope Ranch continued its momentum with 10 sales in Q3 — a 150% increase from the same quarter last year. Though the small number of transactions makes median pricing more variable, the area has experienced 13% average annual appreciation over the past five years.

 

 

Summerland

Summerland saw just two closed sales, down from five in Q3 2024. While South County as a whole has appreciated roughly 9% annually over the past five years, Summerland’s pricing has edged down slightly, averaging –0.5% per year. The median price this quarter was $1.73M.

 

 

Carpinteria

Carpinteria posted another consistent quarter with 29 closed sales, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of roughly 30 transactions. The median price rose 17% year over year to $1.5M, the second-highest quarterly figure on record (behind Q4 2024).

A highlight sale was 630 Polo Way for $6.34M, the first closing at Polo Residences, a new development adjacent to the Santa Barbara Polo & Racquet Club.

 
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AUGUST MARKET UPDATE