QUARTER 4 MARKET UPDATE
The South Santa Barbara County market closed the year on strong footing. There were 345 closed sales in Q4, up 14% year over year and consistent with Q3 activity. From a seasonal standpoint, this is notable - sales typically soften heading into the fourth quarter, making the flat quarter-over-quarter performance a clear indicator of sustained buyer demand.
Overall, the market remained exceptionally strong throughout 2025. While the pandemic initially accelerated demand, that momentum has proven durable. Pricing has meaningfully stabilized, creating a healthier and more balanced environment for long-term market growth.
We were grateful to see this strength reflected in Riskin Partners’ own performance, with 2025 marking our second-best year on record and more than $700M in closed sales. That performance was driven by the same forces shaping the broader market: consistent demand, limited supply, and a growing preference for high-quality, well-located homes.
As always, market conditions vary meaningfully by submarket.
Montecito
Montecito ended the year on a high note. Q4 sales rose 26% year over year, and the median price increased 35% to $6.7M. Entry-level pricing has moved meaningfully higher, while the $20M-plus segment continues to define the upper end of the market. Limited inventory and sustained demand continue to support pricing, particularly for turnkey homes. Notable transactions included the Picacho Lane estate that closed at $60M, highlighting continued demand at the very top of the market. Q1 is also looking to be off to a great start and we look forward to reporting in more detail next month!
Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara also delivered a strong finish to the year. Sales increased 13% year over year, while Median Price rose 4% to $1.9M. In Q4, there were eight sales above $4M, including 2082 Las Canoas Road at $5.4M and 3213 Cliff Drive at $10.85M. Compared to Q4 2019, the median price in Santa Barbara is up approximately 50%, reflecting steady appreciation and a more measured growth profile relative to Montecito.
Hope Ranch
Hope Ranch metrics are often more volatile due to the limited number of transactions in any given quarter. In Q4, there were three closed sales, consistent with Q4 2024 but down from the heightened activity seen in Q2 and Q3. Median price reached $10.25M, representing a 102% increase year over year. The quarter’s sales included 4672 Via Roblada at $7.8M, 4347 Marina Drive at $10.75M, and 4475 Via Abrigada at $12.2M. With such a small sample size, individual transactions can meaningfully influence quarterly pricing trends.
Summerland
Summerland continues to reflect the volatility typical of low-volume submarkets. There were five closed sales in Q4, unchanged year over year. Median price declined 46% to $2.4M, largely due to the absence of a high-end outlier. In Q4 2024, the market included an $8.5M sale, which significantly elevated the median. The most notable transaction this quarter was 2556 Whitney Avenue, which closed at $4.6M.
Carpinteria
Carpinteria recorded 34 closed sales in Q4, up 13% year over year. Median price came in at $1.3M, down 21% from Q4 2024. This decline is best understood in context. Q4 2024 was an outlier, driven by several ultra-high value sales, including transactions at $6M, $8M, $10M, and $65M. On a longer-term basis, Carpinteria pricing remains strong. Compared to Q4 2019, Median Price is up 49%. Notable sales this quarter included two new construction closings at the Polo Condos, 135 Polo Way at $4.675M and 110 Polo Way at $5.425M, as well as 871 Sand Point Road at $11.65M.
