2024 Q2 MARKET UPDATE
Q2 of 2024 brought 350 closings across all of Santa Barbara’s South County. This marks a notable milestone as it represents an 11% increase compared to Q2 2023, and the second straight quarter of positive sales momentum.
Sales
As we noted in prior reports, the number of sales decreased consistently through the pandemic as a result of highly limited inventory. In a sign that our market is becoming more balanced, we are now seeing relief as measured by Months of Supply (the number of months, or rate, at which existing inventory would sell at the current sales pace; six months equals supply/demand equilibrium). Using June figures, prior to the pandemic in 2018 and 2019, there were approximately five Months of Supply. During the pandemic in 2021, there was only one Month of Supply, hitting lows in late 2021 and early 2022 where there was even below one month. Last June we saw two months, and as of June 2024, we now have three Months of Supply. While still undersupplied, and technically a seller’s market, the numbers are showcasing what we’re feeling everyday–the market is normalizing and moving towards a balanced market.
Pricing
As a result of our long-term undersupplied market, pricing has appreciated substantially over the past five years. Median Price rose 4% in Q2 compared to Q2 2023, to $1.82MM. In a strong vote of confidence for our region, for just Q2 alone, there have been 13 closed sales over $10MM and seven over $20MM, highlighted by the sale of an oceanfront estate on Padaro Ln for $96 million (the highest price ever paid for a residential property on the Central Coast).
Montecito
For Montecito specifically, there was a 20% decrease in the number of sales compared to Q2 2023 (43 in Q2 2023 vs. 54 in Q2 2024). However, Median Price ticked higher by 2% to $5.5MM.
Hope Ranch
In Hope Ranch, there were seven sales in the Quarter, up from five a year ago. Median Price was $5.8MM, down 40% from Q2 2023, as there were no sales over $8MM. With few sales, the volatility in percentage terms can be skewed quarter to quarter. The most notable sales this quarter were 1020 Via Tranquila ($7.7MM) and 4040 Marina Dr ($8MM).
Carpinteria
The beach in Carpinteria is performing quite well this quarter! 3345 Padaro Ln closed for $21.5MM and in addition to the $96M record-breaking sale, there was another off-market sale in the high $40Ms on Padaro.
When looking at the data, it’s clear that the Santa Barbara real estate market continues to thrive, especially on the high end. People who can choose to live anywhere, choose to live here and invest in our community. As summer kicks into high gear, Montecito’s allure continues to shine and we are confident that life here will only get sweeter.
