MID-YEAR MARKET UPDATE
At the halfway point of 2025, South Santa Barbara County’s real estate market continues to show signs of resilience and rebalancing. There were 676 closings across Q1 and Q2—up 9% from the same period in 2024 (vs. 625). The overall pace of activity has remained steady, with Q2 up 17% from Q1, reflecting the typical seasonal lift between winter and spring.
Inventory is slowly rising, which means more homes are coming on the market. At the beginning of the year, there was about 2.6 months of supply, meaning it would have taken just over two and a half months to sell all available homes at the current pace. By the end of June, that number increased to 3.7 months. While still a seller-leaning market, this shift shows we’re gradually moving toward more balance between supply and demand—something we haven’t seen since before 2020.
That said, South County results have been heavily influenced by fluctuations in Montecito’s performance. In Q1, Montecito accounted for 22% of all sales—up from 15% the year prior—and drove a record-setting quarter in both volume and pricing. In Q2, activity in Montecito cooled, dropping 29% from Q1, while the rest of the region picked up pace. This shift highlights how pockets of discretionary capital continue to move in and out of the market in response to broader economic signals.
Montecito
Montecito saw 68 sales in Q1—the highest since early 2022—followed by a slower Q2 with 48 closings. Altogether, the first half of 2025 recorded 116 sales, up 28% from 91 in the first half of 2024. Median Price averaged $5.97M across both quarters, with Q1 setting a record at $5.7M and Q2 climbing even higher to $6.25M. It’s worth noting that Q1 included six sales over $20M and Q2 had just one, indicating overall pricing strength even without an ultra-luxury skew. Notable sales include 956 Mariposa Ln for $30M and 1803 Fernald Point Ln for $23.76M.
Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara recorded 289 closings in the first half of the year, up 5% from 275 in the same period last year. Median Price peaked in Q1 at $2.15M before dipping to $1.85M in Q2—both quarters impacted by a handful of high-end sales, including 845 Sea Ranch Dr for $23M and 1809 Mira Vista Ave for $8.25M. While pricing has fluctuated, demand remains consistent, with Q2 sales up 24% from Q1.
Hope Ranch
Hope Ranch has quietly built momentum. There were 8 sales in Q1 and 10 in Q2, together marking a 75% increase from the first half of 2024. Median Price averaged around $6.7M, with standout sales like 4187 Cresta Ave ($18.4M) and 4426 Via Bendita ($12.5M) reinforcing buyer interest in the enclave.
Summerland
After a strong Q1 with six closings, Summerland quieted in Q2 with just three. Median Price was $2.4M in Q1 and $1.75M in Q2, though both quarters were shaped by a limited number of sales. The top transaction was 2322 Whitney Ave for $3.14M.
Carpinteria
Carpinteria continued its steady pace, averaging ~31 sales per quarter for five straight quarters. There were 62 closings in the first half of the year, up 17% from 53 last year. Median Price rose to $1.4M in Q1 before dipping to $1.175M in Q2. While pricing has fluctuated, demand has remained stable. The most notable sale was 6858 Casitas Pass Rd for $14M.
